Working Paper
The Great Labor Displacement
2030: The First AI Employment Shock and the Restructuring of the Global Economy
This working paper estimates how much of the United States workforce could experience significant AI-related job disruption by 2030.
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The record
- Author
- Mark Sendo
- Class
- Working Paper
- Version
- 3.1
- Status
- Working Paper v3.1 · Published · Not peer-reviewed
- Published
- 2026-10-25
- Length
- 30 pages
- License
- CC BY 4.0
- Deposited record
- zenodo.org
Read the full text at zenodo.org →
Cite this publication
Sendo, M. (2026). The Great Labor Displacement: 2030: The First AI Employment Shock and the Restructuring of the Global Economy (Version 3.1). Orchestrator Institute (OIAIL). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23643337
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Abstract
This working paper estimates how much of the United States workforce could experience significant AI-related job disruption by 2030. It combines occupation-level AI-exposure measures with explicit assumptions about adoption, pass-through from exposure to substitution, and an adjustment for work that requires physical presence, and runs them across base and fast-adoption scenarios. In the base scenarios roughly 40 to 44 percent of U.S. jobs face significant disruption; in the fast scenarios the share exceeds 50 percent (about 52 to 54 percent). These are scenario estimates, not forecasts of job losses: disruption includes task restructuring, wage pressure and displacement. The model and its code are published in full so the assumptions can be checked. The physical-work adjustment currently uses an occupation-level proxy, and an independent methodological review by a labor economist is pending; both will be reflected in Version 3.2.
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